I went to bed last night feeling a bit sick. I just couldn’t believe, after all we’d been through, President Trump had decided to give himself a birthday present in the form of an “agreement” with our Iranian enemies, wrapping it up in the bow of “victory.” Putting capitulation in a gift box, however, doesn’t change the contents. The Iranian press published a photo of President Trump shaking hands with his own shadow. It’s the first time I’ve actually agreed with them about anything.

Abu Ali:

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“Today, on President Trump’s 80th birthday, it is expected, according to Trump’s announcement yesterday, that a memorandum of understanding will be signed between Iran and the US that will lead to the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the beginning of a 60-day period during which the parties will try to reach a comprehensive agreement to end the fighting and an agreed-upon solution to the nuclear issue.

Three key problems arise from the new situation for Israel. One is certain and immediate and two have not yet been decided.

• The Strait of Hormuz is expected to open immediately – which means that the blockade that prevented Iran from exporting its oil ends immediately and Iran will once again generate revenues worth 400-500 million dollars per day – without giving anything other than the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This, let us recall, after President Trump claimed that the US managed to open the Strait Hormuz by force despite the Iranian regime’s opposition and to allow ships to leave under American escort. The Iranian regime immediately receives its oxygen pipeline and its cash machine is back in operation without the regime giving any real compensation.

• The nuclear issue – Iran has not agreed to destroy its enriched uranium and has not agreed not to enrich uranium – this is an issue that must be discussed during the next 60 days. The Iranians will take as much time as possible when the complicated nature of the operation to extract the enriched uranium plays to their advantage and gives them countless excuses for delay – they will use them well.

The main question is how Trump will act on the issue of enforcing the destruction of uranium, and what will happen if the issue continues beyond the 60 days.

• The Lebanon issue – The Iranians have already publicly stated that they demand a complete ceasefire on all fronts, primarily on the Lebanese front.

Significant American pressure is expected on the continuation of IDF activity in southern Lebanon. In this regard, any Israeli agreement to withdraw/ceasefire and change plans on the ground will lead first and foremost to a real Iranian achievement: saving Hezbollah and seriously damaging the negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, which are being held under American auspices.

If credit for a complete ceasefire in Lebanon and/or an Israeli withdrawal is given to Iran, this will lead to the strengthening of Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon and the abandonment of the basis for talks between Israel and Lebanon. What point would it make for the Lebanese to continue negotiations for a ceasefire and peace when Iran manages to achieve this over their heads, while strengthening Hezbollah, which opposes the talks?

This is a situation that Israel must oppose with all force, as it will have a negative and widespread impact on the Lebanese arena as well as on other arenas in which Iran holds a proxy – it will show everyone that loyalty to the ayatollahs’ regime is a profitable thing and will push again to strengthen the Iranian resistance axis in various arenas.

It is clear to any thinking person that despite President Trump’s statements that “the Iranian regime has changed” there has been no change in his murderous ambitions, especially towards Israel.

At the same time, it should be remembered that no American president has gone so far against the Iranian regime as President Trump, and this still stands to his credit, and this cannot be undone even if the agreement that appears to be bad for Israel. The two operations against Iran were important even if they did not achieve everything that Israel hoped to achieve. Even in retrospect, they were undoubtedly worth going for. Beyond that, Trump is the US President and not the Israeli Prime Minister.”

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Opposition leader Yair Lapid, who is not someone I admire or would vote for, said the following on his X account: ‘The emerging agreement doesn’t achieve a single one of the goals of Israel’s war. The ballistic missile plan still exists and Iran can restart its nuclear program. This is a total failure of Netanyahu. And on the way, he is turning our country into a client state that takes orders about its national security…The next government will be asked to correct the damage caused by the inability of Netanyahu to turn military victory into a strategic victory.”

I find this hard to disagree with at this moment.

But Netanyahu is not a magician, and he can only do so much. Perhaps given Trump’s naïve, wrong-headed and totally impulsive foray into the Middle East’s deadly games, Netanyahu is truly unable to do more.

This, however, leaves us with Hezbollah shooting rockets (several landed) into Israel, and Israel unable to strike Dahieh in Beirut so as not to spoil Trump’s “party.”

Iran is demanding a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. If the current “agreement” is nothing more than a glorified 60 day ceasefire, Israel cannot, and hopefully will not, withdraw from her hard won victories in Lebanese territory, places like Beaufort where an underground Hezbollah stronghold held detailed maps of an invasion of the Galilee.

We Israelis are asking: How weak is our government? What is Trump holding over Netanyahu? And what is it Trump really hopes to achieve in substance? Or is it all just more PR?

There has been no regime change in Iran. On the contrary, the emerging strongman, Iranian Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, is an internationally wanted terrorist responsible for the barbaric 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, in which 85 people were killed and more than 300 injured. He is currently serving as Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and was also in charge of destroying the women who protested against the hijab. It was apparently Vahidi who ordered the missile attack on Israel last week. If this is regime change, it sounds like more of the same, or worse.

And now that you are all thoroughly depressed, I suggest you listen to the words of our dear friend U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee, which will cheer you up. God bless him!

You can listen here:

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